Louisville forecast: big drop in covid-19 hospitalizations, slight drop in death rates by end of Aug. if current precautions continue-HEALTHYLIVE

Active hospitalizations for novel coronavirus disease in Louisville through May 6; Jefferson County's median length of hospital stay is used in calculating the daily number. (University of Louisville chart)

As news develops about the coronavirus and its covid-19 disease, this item may be updated. Official state guidance is at kycovid19.ky.gov.

• New projections for Jefferson County show both a slight decrease in covid-19 death rates and a significant decrease in covid-19 hospitalizations by the end of August, assuming "current social distancing and strong containment measures are continued," says Seyed Karimi of the University of Louisville in a news release about a study report from UofL's School of Public Health and Information Sciences. Karimi, co-author of the study, is an assistant professor in the Department of Health Management and System Sciences and a health economist with Louisville Metro Public Health and Wellness. “Hospitalizations appear to have plateaued and are hopefully on a trend downward, but again, only if social distancing and stronger containment measures continue at least at the current rate,” he writes.
• Experts caution that even if a coronavirus vaccine becomes readily available, there won't be enough doses at first for everyone who wants one, and first priority may be given to people who are most risk of contracting the virus, or of developing serious symptoms if infected, the Lexington Herald-Leader reports.  
• The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is planning a nationwide study of up to 325,000 people to track how the coronavirus is spreading across the country into next year and beyond, Reuters reports. The study is expected to launch in June or July and will test samples of blood in 25 metropolitan areas for covid-19 antibodies. Samples will be taken over 19 months to see how antibodies evolve over time, a CDC spokeswoman told Reuters. 
• As President Trump reports that he is taking hydroxychloroquine to fight covid-19, despite warnings from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration that it can cause heart problems, The New York Times reports in detail about what you need to know about the drug. 
•  A new study published in the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report shows again that large gatherings increase the risk for coronavirus transmission. The study found that among 92 attendees at a rural Arkansas church during March 6-11, 35, or 38 percent, tested positive for the virus, and three of them died of covid-19. An additional 26 cases linked to the church occurred in the community, including one death.

from KENTUCKY HEALTH NEWS https://ift.tt/2AK8R52

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